2016 new energy bus market capacity or more than 80,000
2018-12-20In 2015, in order to promote the development of new energy vehicles, the State has successively issued the “Implementation Opinions of the Ministry of Transport on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in the Transportation Industry” and the “Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020”. Notice, “Notice on Improving the Promotion of Urban Bus Product Oil Price Subsidy Policy to Accelerate the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” and “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)”, policies are intensively introduced, and policies are also The single purchase subsidy was changed to multi-point drive including operation subsidies and supporting support. New energy buses, especially pure electric buses, are ushered in a golden period of sustained and rapid growth.
Good policies are intensively introduced, and new energy buses are ushered in a critical period of development.
During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, under the background of the country’s strong promotion of pollution control and efforts to develop energy-saving and environmental protection industries, it also brought new development opportunities for the new energy automobile industry. On the one hand, the new energy vehicle industry has a place in the “13th Five-Year Plan” and has become a key area of ??government attention. On the other hand, in 2016, various favorable policies including procurement subsidies, operating subsidies, and charging infrastructure construction were introduced. Landing will further expand the market demand for new energy auto industry, and more and more social capital will also flood into the new energy bus industry. New energy buses are welcoming a critical period of development. According to experts, in 2016, the capacity of the new energy bus market may exceed 80,000.
In the past 2015, especially in the second half of the year, the whole country has set off a boom in purchasing pure electric buses. The reason is mainly because the new subsidy standard, that is, the “2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard” is implemented soon. The subsidy for pure electric buses is no longer only based on the length of the vehicle, but on the driving range and unit mass. The consumption is refined. Many customers grab large quantities of purchases before the implementation of the New Deal.
According to the “Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020”, by 2017-2018, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% from 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will be 2016. The year-on-year decline is 40%.
However, as a whole, as the technical level of pure electric buses is more mature, especially when the production volume reaches a certain level, the purchase cost of the core parts and vehicles of new energy buses can be reduced, and the purchase cost of new energy buses will decrease in 2016. It is expected to be realized.
Driven by the subsidy policy, the 2016 new energy bus will remain the main driving force for the large and medium-sized passenger car market.
The continuous maturity of new energy bus products will drive more customer choices
After the promotion and unremitting efforts since 2009, China’s new energy buses have formed more mature technical routes and adaptive products, and achieved stage results. From the current point of view, the bottlenecks restricting the development of new energy buses, such as vehicle performance, cost and charging facilities, are also being broken. The key technologies of new energy buses, especially the integration of vehicles, lightweight, batteries, motors, electronic control and other technical levels are Continuous improvement, since the large-scale application in 2009, the safety of new energy buses has been well guaranteed. Therefore, with the maturity and improvement of new energy bus products, more customers and markets will choose new energy bus products.
In 2015, the new energy bus R&D project of Yutong Bus and Zhongtong Bus won the National Science and Technology Progress Award and the National Science and Technology Support Plan. This shows that the mainstream bus companies are increasingly investing in new energy technology innovation and research and development. The overall technical level of the new energy bus industry is constantly elevating to new heights.
Focusing on full-cycle costs will bring real “value realization” to new energy buses
According to the subsidy policy, the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2022 will be reduced by 40% from 2016. The cost of purchasing new energy buses is higher than that of traditional vehicles, which is a reality that cannot be changed in a long period of time.
However, if the total cost of the entire life cycle is lower than or equal to the traditional car, the timing of the real marketization of new energy buses has arrived. Total life cycle costs include acquisition costs, operating costs, maintenance costs, and disposal of residual values. If the above cost is not higher than the traditional bus when creating the same value, the new energy bus will become the market’s first choice.
Focusing on the total cost, manufacturers need to continuously improve the energy-saving performance of vehicles, improve the energy-saving effect of vehicles by optimizing the matching of vehicles, reducing the weight of the vehicle body, reducing the weight of key components, and using batteries with high energy density.
Bus companies should think of ways from the entire industry chain, together with the major upstream suppliers, to improve the performance of key components and reduce their costs. Thereby reducing the final product price. At the same time, we must pay close attention to the technological progress of the industry and timely adopt components with higher cost performance and better performance.